Published by: Oliver Chapple, CEOIn this blog, our CEO and Founder Ollie Chapple covers the key points from a fantastic webinar he attended with Linzi Boyd and Darren Shirlaw of Bob (Business of Brands) all about the macroeconomic outlook looks like for the UK, and what the key is to business survival through the COVID-19 pandemic.
This time is about businesses finding out who their community is – Q. Are you in my community or out of it?
The Economic Clock - where we are on it? Google economic clock . We are at 9:15pm on the economic clock.
Economic Cycles are 14 years of flat, followed by 18 years of growth followed by 14 years of flat again.
1981 was the end of the 14 year cycle
1999-Feb 2013 we had 14 years of flat.
2013 was the boom
We are now economically speaking in March 2020, in a growth cycle, which runs from 2013 to 2031 (in the cycle) which is in the 18 year growth cycle.
What you have however in 6/7 years into the growth cycle, is a shape recession; this occurs because there is a lot of growth initially.
So now we are in an L shape recession (30% drop of Stock market ) – then it’s going to be flat for 18 months, followed by a 45-degree growth line.
1987 recession happened for different reasons. The why question to a recession doesn’t actually matter from an economics perspective as it's cyclical, and happens for different reasons. It’s the trends and cycles that really matter.
What to expect
9 months of shock now. Emotional impact for the next 9 months then businesses recover and innovate, after the first 9 months, in the next 9 months, businesses start to invest in getting the business ready again for growth again.
In 1981 the panic from AIDS, panic was due to misinformation and myths after the initial doom and gloom that millions would die. This did not happen as the wider community became and was educated on how to protect themselves, which prevented that outcome.
In 2020 – we have knowledge, tech, more rapid vaccine development capability and testing, within 18 months we are coming back!
First in First Out (FIFO) - who is hit first recovers first. The businesses that go last, get through it but then get hit harder afterwards like construction companies. They have the longer contracts like 5 years, but when that runs out they then take the hit.
Work this out:-
What do you want the business to look like in 9 months
What do you want the business to look like in 18 months
Innovate - the biggest thing to do - innovate community-based tools. Harness agile development which is key here, make sure your key tech partners are doing this.
You may need to create tools or products that only last for the recession rather than after it. You won’t necessarily keep the tool you use to get through it.
You have to innovate the pricing of the product and deliver it in a different way.
The Message: Innovate now with partners
If you have the cash do M&A and grab market share and consolidate
You can build more brand awareness now than you can at any other time. Promotion now has a greater impact in a recession than it does in a boom.
Align people brands with biz brands. Design a strategy to go out to the community. Who can you partner with that has the black book or your ideal customer list right now.
Who’s engaged with say the financial market? Who is the leader out there coming forward, you can work with?
Amazon – today released free audiobooks for children to listen to. What can you do with your Brand?
This goes to purpose; what is your purpose and how can you help others with yours? This is higher purpose stuff!
Comms Message: It's vital at this time that you Don’t talk about product!
People do not want to be sold to right now. It’s all about the Emotional connection.
Speak to the customer and who they are and their emotions. This is the way to engage them which means going up to the highest level.
Look for the market gap - where you can supply the demand.
Yoga has gone online – Some guy is branding himself the nation’s yoga teacher and has signed up 1m households for online yoga.
At no point talk about your product, as soon as you start selling to them, you will lose them. Engage with emotions and be about solving and helping. Save people from something. It has to be about help so find out what they care about.
It’s a human response that's needed now, not a business response that is required now. People will switch off to business messages as they are in an emotional state.
Connect with the purpose of the people. Put the emotional response out in the market place, then they are that channel to market.
Do the maths: what are their commitments? Open conversations. Allow them to tighten their belts. Build business together.
Back to recession and global impacts
Australia as usual is Last In Last Out (LILO), for many reasons including mining being a core economy and they are behind the curve in cases of disease. In the last recession of 2008, Poland & Australia didn’t really experience a recession. They were technically in recession but in reality the impact was minimal compared to other countries.
To wrap up!
Remember it's all about the Human connection, not the product at the moment. We will drive people into the business without having to sell to them.
- What do you need? How can I help?
- Ask yourselves what is your purpose? Crucially this could be the making of you.
- Engage with their emotions around money.
- We are all going through this
- How are you managing to run your team and budget?
- What are you doing differently?
- Ask the heart felt questions.